I have been tracking SanDisk’s numbers. It’s one of my favourites. Why? Its performance, and the reason behind the big numbers. And the numbers keep doing something unusual for sure. They keep getting bigger than the already-big numbers that preceded them.
If you didn’t know, SanDisk (SNDK) is the top-performing S&P 500 stock in 2026, up 707.11% year-to-date, according to SlickCharts. It has lapped Micron almost three times. It has lapped Dell, which sits in second position. It has lapped everything. It has honestly been incredible.
And on July 5, Goldman Sachs did something that made even veteran semiconductor watchers stop and look twice. Goldman nearly doubled its SanDisk price target, maintaining its Buy rating in a note shared with me at TheStreet.
The 38-year-old SNDK closed July 9 at $1,858.27, up 7.59% on the session, according to Yahoo Finance. The new target, around $2,200, implies roughly 18% further upside from that close.
But the number itself is almost secondary to what Goldman is actually saying. The firm’s non-GAAP earnings per share estimate for calendar year 2026 is more than 30% above the Street consensus, as noted. That gap between Goldman’s view and the market’s is the real story here. Let’s look at it.
Also Read: SanDisk Corp. Latest News and Stories
What Goldman is seeing that most analysts are not
On July 9, I covered Goldman’s AMD earnings preview from the same source, noting that the server CPU story wins the earnings. My colleague broke down AMAT, citing expected DRAM strength to drive best-in-class growth in 2026. Today, it is SanDisk’s turn, and the setup Goldman describes is even more bullish.
The firm raised its 12-month target to $2,200 from $1,200, based on a 20 times price-to-earnings multiple applied to a normalized EPS estimate of $110, significantly higher than the prior estimate of $55, Goldman wrote in the note shared with me.
We expect a very strong quarter driven by continued NAND supply tightness.
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The target methodology is worth reading carefully. Goldman reduced its multiple from 22 times to 20 times on a higher earnings base, and the EPS estimate doubled.
That is not a valuation inflation story. It is a fundamental earnings power revision driven by NAND pricing data that Goldman believes the Street has not yet fully incorporated.
The firm expects SanDisk to deliver significant upside to fourth quarter results and guidance when it reports on August 5, with additional investor attention on long-term agreements and NAND pricing commentary following Micron’s strong results.
Goldman specifically noted that positioning heading into the print appears bullish given “extremely strong Q2 guidance” and positive management commentary in recent weeks.
My read of that setup is that Goldman is essentially saying the quarter will be strong, the guidance will be strong, and the LTA disclosures could be the catalyst that forces a broader re-rating.
Here’s the NAND supply story Goldman is betting on
Goldman sees tight supply-and-demand conditions in NAND persisting longer than in DRAM, driven by limited supply additions across the industry, according to the note.
SanDisk is simultaneously improving its product mix through ramping eSSD design wins at key hyperscaler customers. More than one-third of fiscal year 2027 bit output is already committed under New Business Model agreements.
Related: Bank of America revamps Sandisk stock price target
The LTA disclosure story is the item Goldman flagged most specifically as a potential stock mover on the August 5 call. Following the number of new agreements recently announced by Micron, Goldman said the scope and number of new LTA disclosures from SanDisk will be a key focal point for investors.
Each new hyperscaler commitment locks in pricing and volume, removing the cyclical pricing risk that has historically capped memory stock multiples.
Goldman also acknowledged a few downside hazards. A structural change in NAND pricing failing to materialize, Chinese competitor YMTC iterating on its roadmap, and SanDisk failing to gain eSSD traction.
But the firm’s conviction is that none of those risks are imminent, and that supply remains structurally constrained well into 2027.
Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images
SanDisk’s Q3 results and Q4 guidance frame what August 5 needs to deliver
The Q3 fiscal 2026 results, reported on April 30, set the financial foundation that Goldman is building on.
- Revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% above Q2 sequentially and 251% above the year-ago quarter
- Datacenter revenue grew 645% year over year, and 233% quarter over quarter
- GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, up 287% year over year, with a non-GAAP EPS of $23.41.
- Five New Business Model agreements were signed during and immediately after the quarter.
For Q4 fiscal 2026, SanDisk anticipated revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $30.00 to $33.00. That guidance range, at the midpoint, would represent another massive sequential step from an already historic Q3.
This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for SanDisk.
Continued CEO David Goeckeler in the Q3 earnings release, “We are advancing to a new business model built on multi-year customer engagements backed by firm financial commitments. This transformation is driving structurally higher and more durable earnings power.”
July 10, 2026, FactSet data confirms that SanDisk is among the largest contributors to Information Technology (IT) sector earnings growth since March 31, alongside Micron, Nvidia, and Apple.
Related: Goldman Sachs doubles down on Applied Materials stock target
The semiconductor sector is expected to report 131% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2, and SanDisk is one of the primary engines of that growth. Excluding the industry, the estimated earnings growth rate for the IT sector would fall to 25.8% from 63.3%.
SanDisk’s investor day on August 13 follows just eight days after earnings, providing another near-term catalyst window for management to quantify the multi-year LTA pipeline and long-term financial targets.
Remember, SNDK has already returned 707% year-to-date, a $2,200 Goldman target, and an EPS estimate 30% above consensus. To me, that means the move is not over. August 5 will tell us whether everybody else is ready to agree.
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