Sandisk stock fell 3.83% to $1,325.46 in pre-market trade on Thursday, giving back Wednesday’s 0.94% gain to $1,378.22, hours before its former parent reports. Western Digital publishes fiscal first quarter results after the close, with a call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific.
That print is the first memory and storage read-through of the week, and it lands on the morning Micron’s Taoyuan union walks out in Taiwan. Sandisk does not report until 29 October, so Thursday night is the closest thing Sandisk stock holders get to a preview.
Western Digital Has to Clear $4.07 After Guiding to $4.00
Zacks puts consensus at $4.07 a share on about $4.16 billion of revenue, while MarketBeat has $4.08 on $4.14 billion. Western Digital’s own August guidance was non-GAAP earnings of $3.85 to $4.15 and revenue of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion, so the street is asking for the upper half of management’s own range.
Gross margin is the line that will decide the reaction more than either headline figure. The company guided to 55% to 56% against 54.4% in the June quarter, and last quarter revenue rose 44% to $3.747 billion while capacity shipped grew about 22%, which means price and mix did most of the work. Western Digital reports after the close on 22 October, with the call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
In August Western Digital Guided Above Consensus and the Stock Still Fell
The August quarter is the warning for anyone positioning Sandisk stock into tonight. Western Digital beat on revenue at $3.75 billion against a $3.69 billion consensus, then guided first quarter earnings to a $4.00 midpoint when the street wanted $3.77, and revenue to $4.1 billion when the street wanted $4.04 billion. The shares sank anyway.
Sandisk did the same thing on the same week, beating and then falling 8% to close 5 August at $1,350.50. Beating consensus has not been enough in this complex for two quarters, because the buy side is carrying numbers well above the published estimates.
Investor Takeaway
Sandisk stock has twice sold off on a beat this year, so the published $4.07 consensus is the wrong bar to watch tonight.
The Micron Strike Is a DRAM Event and Sandisk Makes NAND
Micron’s Taoyuan union began a 24-hour strike at 9 a.m. on Thursday, with about 2,100 members representing roughly 70% of that plant. The company reached a deal with the separate union at its larger Taichung site on Wednesday, which removes the bigger of the two risks.
That distinction matters a great deal for anyone trading this as a Sandisk stock read-across. TrendForce analyst Ellie Wang has described Taoyuan as front-end DRAM wafer manufacturing, while Taichung handles advanced DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and packaging. A one-day stoppage at a DRAM fab moves mu stock and the memory complex on sentiment, and it does not take a single NAND wafer out of supply.
NAND Contract Prices Are Set to Rise 15% to 20% This Quarter
The pricing backdrop remains the strongest part of the bull case on Sandisk stock. TrendForce expects NAND flash contract prices to rise 15% to 20% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, against 10% to 15% for conventional DRAM, with AI server demand doing the lifting while consumer demand stays weak.
The qualifier sits in the same TrendForce note, and it deserves at least equal weight. NAND wafer prices have reached highs that retail channels are increasingly unable to absorb, and suppliers have taken a more flexible stance that restrains further increases. Citi has kept a $2,100 target on the name after Micron’s NAND prices rose about 30% against a 20% consensus.
Sandisk Stock Is 24% Below Where It Sat a Month Ago
At $1,325.46 Sandisk stock is down 24.52% over one month and 12.08% over three, which is the drawdown it carries into its own report. The year is still up 464.04% and the twelve months up 845.28%, on a beta of 3.51 and a $199.19 billion market value.
Sandisk stock has fallen 24.52% in a month, from above $1,750 in late September to $1,325.46 on Thursday morning, which is the position it takes into Western Digital’s print tonight and its own on 29 October. Source: TradingViewConsensus for 29 October sits at $46.20 a share on $10.65 billion of revenue. FinanceFeeds’ published scenarios run to a $2,481.99 bull and a $681.22 bear, and the comparable ranges on Micron and Western Digital were all built before tonight’s print.
Investor Takeaway
A beta of 3.51 means the read-through from tonight’s print is likely to be amplified rather than muted.
