The crude oil price today has WTI at $85.63 a barrel, down 1.40%, extending a Monday session in which the US benchmark settled $3.98 lower at $86.85. Brent is quoted at $91.38, down 1.29%, after settling Monday at $92.57 for a fall of 5.85%.
Those settlements came the same afternoon Donald Trump told reporters that “Iran militarily is effectively over,” and the same day a Saudi pipeline was attacked, weeks after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia pushed Brent to a $116.72 settlement. The crude oil price today is therefore being set by what officials are saying rather than by what is happening to barrels, which is a fragile arrangement when Tehran is publicly rejecting the premise.
Brent Lost 16% Last Week and Another 5.85% on Monday
Brent’s fall last week was its steepest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters. That run follows an October in which Brent gained 13.6%, so the crude oil price today sits on both sides of a violent round trip. Monday added $5.75 to that, and both benchmarks kept sliding after the settlement bell, with Brent last trading more than $7 lower and WTI more than $5.
The supply picture behind the slide was loosening before any of the diplomacy began. JPMorgan puts the global surplus at around 1.4 million barrels per day in October, and OPEC output has climbed back to 90% of pre-war levels. Against that, the crude oil price today still carries a premium to every contract behind it.
Six sessions have taken about $11 off the crude oil price today without a single barrel being added to or removed from the market. Source: Oilprice.comInvestor Takeaway
Brent lost 16% last week and 5.85% on Monday on diplomatic signals while a Saudi pipeline was being attacked, so the crude oil price today is discounting a settlement that neither side has agreed to.
Trump Said the Blockade Stays, Which the Price Has Not Priced
Speaking in the Brady Briefing Room after meeting Qatar’s prime minister alongside JD Vance, Trump said the military phase was finished and that Washington was “just keeping it the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbours.”
He then described that status quo in terms that sit awkwardly beside a 6% sell-off, calling it “a continuation of the greatest naval blockade in the history of our country. Probably in the history of the world.” A blockade that stays in place is not a supply picture that has normalized, and the crude oil price today is trading as though it were.
Tehran Is Rejecting the Premise in Public
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Trump to “FOLD YOUR HAND” and to “STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks.” President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would “not surrender to force and bullying,” describing the position as neither war nor peace.
Tehran has pressed seven conditions for ending the conflict, and four of them are public. They are lifting US sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian funds, recognizing a new Strait of Hormuz shipping route worked out with Oman, and ending the war on all fronts including Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. None has been met, and the crude oil price today has moved as though several had.
The Curve Says the Premium Is a 2027 Problem
December 2027 trades at $73.53, which is $12.13 below the front contract. The next five Decembers give up $14.19 between them, reaching $59.34 by 2032. The shape says the market treats the current level as a war price with a known expiry rather than a new baseline.
Traders will pay $85.66 for December delivery and $73.53 for the same barrel a year later, so almost half of the six-year decline in the crude oil price today is priced into the first twelve months. Source: Oilprice.com WTI futures · Chart: FinanceFeedsFinanceFeeds had Brent at $96.45 on Monday before the settlement, against $113 on 1 November when OPEC+ was set to hold December output, and $116 on 30 October after the Hormuz mine claims.
Hormuz Flows Are Setting the Crude Oil Price Today
The strait is the test that matters, and the traffic through it is moving freely. Oilprice.com reported on Tuesday morning that LNG traffic through Hormuz has reached its highest level since the war began. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, tied the selling directly to that flow: “Crude futures are under selling pressure once again as oil volumes continue strong through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Other desks are less convinced that the repricing has further to run from here. TACenergy wrote that the diplomatic signals “seem to have encouraged sellers on the prospects for peace even while the actual fighting is not slowing down,” and Gelber & Associates said shipping and regional security risks “remain unresolved.”
A month of losses has not touched the year, which is why a crude oil price today near $85 still represents a third more than traders were paying in January. Source: Oilprice.com · Chart: FinanceFeedsWTI is down 6.28% over a month and 2.66% over five sessions, yet remains 33.53% higher this year and 29.83% higher over twelve months. The day range runs $85.10 to $86.93 on 21,200 lots, and Brent holds a $5.75 premium to WTI. Judged against January rather than against last month, the crude oil price today is still an expensive barrel.
Investor Takeaway
Rising Hormuz volumes rather than any signed agreement are what the selling rests on, so tanker and LNG traffic through the strait is the series that moves the crude oil price today, ahead of any announcement.
