Updated 13 November 2026, 13:30 GMT, as the US producer price data came out. Spot gold was at $3,888.50 an ounce, up 0.31 percent on the day (Kitco, 8:30 a.m. ET). On Thursday it fell to $3,852, its lowest since October 2025 (FXStreet). US October producer prices rose 0.3 percent on the month, a touch below the 0.4 percent forecast, but the annual rate of 6.5 percent was the highest since November 2022 (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Verdict: the report gives gold no reason to extend the bounce and none to break Thursday’s low; the Fed’s December decision is still the driver. Reference levels: $3,963 above, $3,800 below.
Key facts
- Spot price: $3,888.50 bid at 8:30 a.m. ET, up $12.10 or 0.31 percent; day range $3,874.30 to $3,924.00 (Kitco).
- Thursday: fell to $3,852, the lowest level since October 2025; gold was down more than 4 percent on the week at that point (FXStreet).
- PPI: final-demand producer prices rose 0.3 percent in October after a revised 1.4 percent in September, and 6.5 percent over 12 months. Prices excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.5 percent on the month and 4.9 percent on the year (BLS).
- Forecasts: 0.4 percent on the month and 6.6 percent on the year (Dow Jones survey, Investing.com calendar).
- Earlier this week: spot gold was near $4,040 on Wednesday, after the October CPI beat forecasts on Tuesday, as our Wednesday gold page reported.
- Dollar: the dollar index was near 103.18, close to a 19-month high (TraderFactor).
- Silver: $49.70, down 0.50 percent (Kitco, 8:29 a.m. ET).
What the PPI report means for gold
The headline was slightly softer than expected. Producer prices rose 0.3 percent against a 0.4 percent forecast, and the annual rate of 6.5 percent came in just under the 6.6 percent consensus. That is a smaller overshoot than September’s, when the index rose 1.3 percent against 0.6 percent expected; the BLS has now revised that month to 1.4 percent.
The detail is less comfortable. Goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.5 percent, and the measure that strips out food, energy and trade services also rose 0.5 percent. The 12-month rise is the largest since November 2022, according to the BLS. For a Fed that is already expected to raise rates in December, a report like this supports the hike rather than its size.
Gold pays no interest, so higher policy rates raise the cost of holding it. FXStreet reported that markets saw a 14.5 percent chance of a 50 basis point December rise, up from zero before Tuesday’s CPI. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said a 50 basis point move should be considered if core inflation stays high. The Fed’s next decision is on 9 December. Our Nasdaq report covers how the same data hit stocks.
Where analysts see gold going
Most of the analysts FXStreet surveyed on Friday morning, before the data, were bearish in the short term. RoboForex put resistance at $3,963 and expected a retest of $3,852; a move below that area, it said, opens the way to $3,777. FXStreet’s Sagar Dua said a failure to hold $3,850 exposes $3,800 and then $3,700, with the price below its 20-day average of $4,031.39. Money Metals’ Mike Maharrey agreed the short-term picture is weak but called the fall a chance for long-term buyers.
There is one source of support. Kitco reported Société Générale’s estimate that gold could see $3.3 billion of buying from index rebalancing after its 13 percent decline. TraderFactor puts nearby support at $3,870 and $3,822, with resistance at $3,911 and $3,970. Our technical analysis from Thursday showed the rejection at $4,150 that started this leg lower.
Gold price: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold (spot) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,800 | The dollar breaks higher, December hike bets grow and Thursday’s $3,852 low gives way. | Sagar Dua’s next level below $3,850 (FXStreet); about 2.3 percent below $3,888.50. |
| Base | $3,852-$3,924 | Gold holds between Thursday’s low and Friday’s high into next week. | FXStreet’s $3,852 low; Kitco’s $3,924.00 day high. |
| Bull | $3,963 | A softer dollar and the index-rebalancing flows push gold back through resistance. | RoboForex resistance (FXStreet); about 1.9 percent above $3,888.50. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are short-term reference levels measured from the 8:30 a.m. ET quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $3,852: Thursday’s 13-month low, the first level below.
- $3,924: Friday’s high so far, then $3,963.
- The dollar index near 103.25: the level TraderFactor names as the break point.
- Fed speakers: any comment on a 50 basis point December move.
- 9 December: the Fed’s next rate decision.
Oil has moved the other way this week. Our Brent page covers the jump to $95.
Quick take: Gold was at $3,888.50 when the October PPI came out, after a 13-month low of $3,852 on Thursday. Producer prices rose 0.3 percent, a little below forecast, but the 6.5 percent annual rate keeps a December Fed hike in play. $3,800 is the downside reference, $3,963 the upside.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $3,888.50 an ounce at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday 13 November, up 0.31 percent on the day, according to Kitco.
Why is gold falling this week?
The October CPI and PPI reports showed inflation running hot, which raised expectations of a Fed rate rise in December and lifted the dollar. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates weigh on it.
What did the October PPI show?
Final-demand producer prices rose 0.3 percent on the month and 6.5 percent on the year. Forecasts were 0.4 percent and 6.6 percent. September was revised up to 1.4 percent (BLS).
How low has gold fallen?
To $3,852 on Thursday, the lowest since October 2025 (FXStreet).
What are the key gold price levels?
Support near $3,852 and then $3,800; resistance near $3,924 and then $3,963, according to the analysts cited above.
When is the next Fed decision?
On 9 December, after the 8-9 December meeting.
Sources: Kitco spot quotes, 13 November 2026, 8:29-8:30 a.m. ET; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Indexes, October 2026 (USDL 26-1687, 13 November 2026); FXStreet, 12 and 13 November 2026 (Thursday low, rate pricing, RoboForex, Sagar Dua, Money Metals); TraderFactor, 13 November 2026 (dollar index, levels); Kitco, citing Société Générale (index rebalancing); Dow Jones survey and Investing.com calendar (PPI forecasts).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
