Picture three students turning in exams on the same day, covering the same material. Two walk away with high marks. The third has been raising his grades all semester, yet still gets flagged for summer school.
That is roughly the dynamic inside the BofA research note on biotech I received on the 13th, where Amgen (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) share a page but leave with very different grades.
The note, published Aug. 12, walks through second-half catalysts across BofA’s biotech coverage list. Gilead and Vertex both carry Buy ratings, and Vertex is one of the bank’s 2026 top picks.
Amgen keeps its Underperformrating and a $317 price objective, below where its shares were already trading.
That split says something about how BofA weighs momentum against pipeline risk. A strong quarter alone doesn’t move a rating.
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Amgen’s stock has outrun its own rating
Amgen reported second-quarter revenue of $10.1 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.29 a share, both ahead of Wall Street‘s forecasts. The company raised its full-year guidance immediately after, according to an earnings call transcript published by Investing.com.
Shares climbed on the print and have now gained more than 20% this year, putting the stock near its 52-week high.
That kind of run usually earns a rating upgrade, not a reiterated Underperform. TD Cowen raised its own Amgen price target after the same earnings report, Investing.com noted.
BofA held its ground instead, which says less about Amgen’s quarter and more about what the bank thinks happens next.
BofA’s valuation leans on Amgen’s next generation of growth drivers, olpasiran, an experimental drug designed to lower a genetic form of bad cholesterol, and the obesity drug MariTide, rather than the commercial products already fueling those beat-and-raise quarters. Neither program has pivotal data due until 2027.
The catalyst that matters most for Amgen belongs to a rival
BofA’s own language explains the gap. Analysts call the biggest near-term event for Amgen investors a trial Amgen doesn’t even run: Novartis and Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ Phase 3 HORIZON study of pelacarsen, a rival drug targeting lipoprotein(a), a genetic cardiovascular risk factor that statins cannot touch, as CNBC has reported.
Amgen’s competing drug, olpasiran, will not post its own late-stage outcomes data until 2027. Until then, pelacarsen’s results function as an early referendum on whether lowering Lp(a) actually prevents heart attacks at all.
BofA calls the read-through directional, not definitive, but it’s still the reason Amgen’s rating hasn’t caught up with its stock chart.
Michael Vi / Getty Images
Gilead’s calendar is stacked with catalysts it controls
Gilead carries none of that borrowed uncertainty. The FDA has an Aug. 27 decision due on a once-daily HIV pill combining bictegravir and lenacapavir, and a second decision on anito-cel, a multiple myeloma cell therapy, is set for Dec. 23.
Gilead paid roughly $7.8 billion earlier this year to buy out its partner and take full control of that cancer drug, CNBC reported at the time.
BofA’s $162 price objective implies real upside from where Gilead traded when the note went out. The bank points to durable growth across Gilead’s HIV franchise, plus newer contributions from Trodelvy, an established cancer therapy, and Livdelzi, a recently approved treatment for a rare liver disease, as the reasons that target holds up.
Some investors still treat Gilead as a slow-growth HIV company propped up by one franchise, an argument the Motley Fool has pushed back on, given the string of approvals stacking up. Two PDUFA dates landing four months apart are a different kind of catalyst than a single make-or-break trial.
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Vertex is buying its way into a fifth franchise
Vertex’s second half tells a third story entirely. The company is closing its $10 billion purchase of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, the largest deal in Vertex’s history, adding a commercial endocrine drug called Palsonify targeting a new disease area altogether, Reuters reported when the deal was announced.
Vertex shares actually fell about 2% on the news, even as Crinetics stock roughly doubled, a reminder that acquirers rarely get credit on announcement day.
Layer in a Nov. 30 FDA decision for povetacicept, an experimental therapy that targets the underlying autoimmune cause of progressive kidney disease, and Vertex now has meaningful catalysts spanning cystic fibrosis, gene editing, pain, kidney disease and endocrinology at the same time.
BofA’s $672 price target and top-pick label reflect a bet on that spread, not on any single drug carrying the stock alone.
The deal wasn’t cheap. Vertex was the only bidder at the table, and its offer worked out to more than double Crinetics’ prior closing price, according to BioPharma Dive’s reporting.
BofA keeping Vertex as a top pick despite that price tag suggests the bank sees the new franchise as worth it.
What actually separates a top pick from an underperform
Line the three ratings up and a pattern emerges. A strong earnings beat didn’t move Amgen’s rating. A rocky one-day stock reaction didn’t touch Vertex’s top-pick status.
What mattered was how much of each company’s near-term story depends on data it controls versus data it’s borrowing from someone else’s trial.
That distinction gets tested for real once pelacarsen’s results land. Investors will finally learn whether Amgen’s biggest long-term bet was aimed at the right target, or whether BofA’s caution showed up before the data did.
Related: Key HIV stat over 70% leaves BofA siding with Gilead
