Robinhood released its July operating data on August 12, and the headline number looked ugly: crypto notional trading volumes of $10.9 billion, down 62% from a year earlier and down 33% from June alone. A year ago, a crypto decline of that size would have pressured the stock. Instead, HOOD rose 4.9% the following session to $99.37, its highest level since late July, and briefly crossed $100.
The reason the decline did so little damage shows up everywhere else in the report. Equities volume was up 59% year over year, options set a record, and event contracts, Robinhood’s prediction-markets business, traded twenty times the volume they did a year ago. Crypto has become one of several things Robinhood does rather than the number the stock lives or dies on, and July was the month that distinction became hard to miss. Three years ago, HOOD moved with Bitcoin. Now it can shrug off a 62% crypto drop and rise on the strength of everything around it.
Robinhood (HOOD) rose about 4.9% to $99.37 on August 13 after its July operating data, recovering from a July slide to near $85 and crossing $100 intraday. Source: TradingViewWhat the July Data Actually Said
Look past the crypto figure and the report was strong. Equity notional trading volumes reached $333 billion, up 59% year over year. Options contracts traded hit 324 million, up 66% and a new all-time record. Funded customers rose to 28.5 million, up about 1.77 million from a year earlier. Margin balances jumped 82% year over year to $20.7 billion.
Prediction markets in particular stood out as event contracts traded totaled 6.1 billion in July, up roughly twentyfold from a year earlier, the clearest sign yet that Robinhood has found a new growth engine to replace the one that crypto used to be. When one business grows 20x while another falls 62%, the composition of the company changes, and so does the way the market values it.
One caveat deserves flagging, because Robinhood’s own methodology changed. Starting in July 2026, total platform assets and net deposits now include contributions and assets from Trump Accounts custodied by Robinhood, which means those figures are not directly comparable to prior months. Total platform assets were $355 billion, up 19% year over year but down 4% from June, and net deposits of $5.6 billion were labeled not meaningful given the definitional shift. Truist specifically flagged this for investors, and it is worth stripping out that change before reading too much into the deposit momentum.
Why a 62% Crypto Decline Stopped Mattering
The crypto weakness itself is real and getting worse. Trading revenue fell to $100 million in the second quarter from $134 million in the first, a 38% drop, and July’s volume decline points to further softness. But crypto is now a smaller share of a much larger and more diversified revenue base, so a decline there no longer moves the overall picture the way it once did.
On the Robinhood app, crypto volume dropped 74% year over year to $4.3 billion; even Bitstamp, its institutional venue, fell 45%. What has kept this from denting the stock is simply how small crypto has become as a share of the whole. When equities, options and event contracts are all growing, a business that now contributes a fraction of revenue can shrink by two-thirds without changing the trajectory of the company, and that is roughly what happened.
Investor Takeaway
The 4.9% gain on a 62% crypto decline confirms the re-rating: HOOD now trades on its diversified base, so crypto volume is no longer the swing factor in the stock
The Analyst Response
Wall Street moved with the print, and the direction was up. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $123 from $118, reiterating a Buy rating, citing the record options volumes and the diversification on display. Truist maintained its Buy rating and $130 target, calling the July results better than expected while flagging the Trump Account caveat.
The most striking call, though, predates the print and now looks prescient. Back in July, Bernstein lifted its Robinhood target to a Street-high $160 on the specific thesis, as reported by The Block, that prediction-markets revenue would overtake crypto. July’s data, with event contracts up 20x and crypto down 62%, is exactly the crossover Bernstein was betting on. The spread between the targets, from Goldman’s $123 to Bernstein’s $160, captures how much disagreement remains about how far the prediction-markets story can run, but the direction of travel is one the bulls now share.
Is This Robinhood-Specific, or Sector-Wide?
The read-across matters for anyone covering the brokerage space, and the evidence points to a broad cooling rather than a Robinhood problem. Swissquote reported crypto revenue down 66% in the same window, cutting its 2026 guidance despite record client assets, a near-identical decline at a very different firm. Two brokers, two continents, the same steep drop in retail crypto activity. That looks structural, the fading of the 2024-25 crypto trading frenzy, rather than anything specific to one platform.
What makes Robinhood’s version notable is that it is retreating from crypto trading volume while continuing to build crypto infrastructure. It has kept expanding the crypto business geographically, bringing more than 50 crypto assets to its UK app through Bitstamp, and its own Layer-2 network, Robinhood Chain, has seen its total value locked climb steadily toward record levels, even as trading volumes fell.
Robinhood Chain’s total value locked in DeFi has climbed to around $516 million, with bridged TVL nearing $1.55 billion, even as the company’s crypto trading volumes declined. Source: DefiLlamaThat divergence is the nuance the headline crypto number misses: retail crypto trading is cooling, but Robinhood is still investing in the rails, a bet that activity returns even if the timing is uncertain.
What Q3 Has to Show
The re-rating is not risk-free, and the next quarter has to defend it. The bull case now leans heavily on prediction markets sustaining their explosive growth, and event contracts already dipped 5% from June, a reminder that the World Cup-driven surge has a seasonal component. If that business decelerates before crypto recovers, the diversification story that justified Wednesday’s gain would come under pressure.
The same day the stock crossed $100, Robinhood’s second venture fund, RVII, made its NYSE debut, another step in the company’s push beyond trading into private markets and asset management. That expansion is the strategic logic behind the re-rating: Robinhood is becoming a broad financial-services platform rather than a trading app, and the market is starting to price it as one. For how the range of outcomes maps to the share price, the analyst spread from $123 to $160 frames the debate. July’s data made the bull case; Q3 has to keep it.
Investor Takeaway
The re-rating hinges on prediction markets holding their growth, so the Q3 event-contracts trend is the single most important number to watch, especially after July’s 5% monthly dip.
