Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) enters its third-quarter earnings week trading near $95, with new comments from its prediction-markets chief putting bitcoin, gold and crude oil contracts in focus ahead of Tuesday’s results.
HOOD stock closed Friday, October 23, at $95.07, down 1.56%, extending a difficult month for the brokerage’s shares. Robinhood will report Q3 2026 earnings after the US market closes on October 27, followed by a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time.
The immediate question is whether rapid growth in event contracts can offset weakness elsewhere in trading activity and support Robinhood’s valuation.
Speaking at the NEXTPredict conference in New York on October 22, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and prediction markets, said financial price contracts have become some of the platform’s fastest-growing products. CoinDesk reported the comments on October 23.
Bitcoin, Gold and Oil Contracts Are Changing Robinhood’s Prediction Markets
Mackenzie said contracts linked to bitcoin, crude oil and gold price movements have begun to “dominate the marketplace,” describing them as particularly fast-growing products.
Sports remains Robinhood’s largest prediction-market category overall. However, its biggest individual event contract in September concerned the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision rather than a sporting event.
The distinction suggests that traders are increasingly using event contracts to speculate on financial outcomes, rather than restricting their activity to sports or elections.
Robinhood is also seeing demand move toward shorter trading windows. Mackenzie said crypto contracts initially covered weekly outcomes, then daily outcomes, with some now operating on 15-minute intervals.
He compared the shortened trading horizon with zero-day options, although the instruments have different payoff structures.
A 15-minute bitcoin contract can ask whether the cryptocurrency will trade above a specified price when the interval ends. Traders can buy positions reflecting the probability of that outcome without purchasing bitcoin itself.
The 15-minute interval determines when the market outcome is measured, not necessarily when funds are paid. Robinhood’s published terms for comparable short-duration contracts indicate that payouts can occur later, depending on the product.
Mackenzie did not disclose separate trading volumes or revenue figures for bitcoin, gold or oil contracts. His description therefore establishes management’s assessment of customer demand, not a measurable market-share ranking.
FinanceFeeds examined the shift toward financial prediction markets on October 24, including the potential risks of increasingly short contract durations.
Prediction Markets Generated $156 Million in Q2 Revenue
The financial significance of those comments becomes clearer when compared with Robinhood’s second-quarter results.
Event contracts generated $156 million in Q2 revenue, more than ten times the amount recorded a year earlier. The business surpassed equities revenue of $129 million and cryptocurrency transaction revenue of $100 million, although options remained substantially larger at $342 million.
Event contracts contributed approximately 20% of Robinhood’s $776 million in transaction-based revenue and nearly 12% of its total $1.31 billion quarterly revenue.
The company also processed 13.6 billion event contracts during Q2, more than ten times the year-earlier level.
That growth makes prediction markets an increasingly important part of Robinhood’s financial performance, even though the business remains smaller than several established revenue sources.
In its September 28 trading update, Robinhood disclosed approximately 4.4 billion event contracts traded between September 1 and September 24. The figure covers only part of one month and cannot be treated as the complete third-quarter total.
The full September operating data is scheduled for release alongside Tuesday’s earnings.
Mackenzie also described prediction markets as potentially Robinhood’s fastest-growing business among its established revenue lines. Although the conference reporting referred to 11 businesses exceeding $100 million in annual revenue, Robinhood’s official Q2 results counted 13 business lines that had reached $100 million or more in annualized revenue. The difference was not explained.
The bigger business opportunity may extend beyond prediction-market fees. Mackenzie said customers who begin with event contracts often explore Robinhood’s stocks, cryptocurrency, futures and options products.
If that behavior translates into additional funded accounts or activity across existing products, prediction markets could support customer acquisition and engagement beyond their direct revenue contribution.
HOOD Stock Falls to $95 Ahead of Tuesday’s Results
Robinhood shares finished October 23 at $95.07, compared with $96.58 in the previous session. The stock traded between $94.79 and $97.75, with approximately 14 million shares changing hands, below its recent average volume.
At Friday’s close, HOOD was approximately 36.8% below its 52-week high of $150.47.
Analyst expectations nevertheless remain substantially above the current share price.
Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage this past week with a Buy rating and a $135 price target, while JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating with a $115 target.
The Rosenblatt target implies approximately 42% upside from Friday’s closing price, compared with roughly 21% for JPMorgan’s target. Those figures reflect analyst assessments rather than guaranteed returns.
A separate SEC filing submitted after Friday’s regular trading session disclosed that Robinhood director and co-founder Baiju Bhatt’s living trust sold 50,912 shares on October 21, at an average price of approximately $101.40.
The transactions were conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in November 2025. The filing does not establish that the planned sales caused Friday’s share-price decline.
Analysts Expect $1.44 Billion in Q3 Revenue
Wall Street expects Robinhood to report approximately $1.44 billion in third-quarter revenue and earnings of $0.56 per share, according to consensus estimates compiled by MarketBeat and TipRanks.
That would represent approximately 13% annual revenue growth, compared with $1.27 billion in Q3 2025. The projected earnings figure is below the $0.61 per share reported a year earlier.
Robinhood’s most recent reported quarter delivered $1.31 billion in revenue and $0.62 in diluted earnings per share.
However, Q2 earnings included a $0.14-per-share contribution from gains primarily related to the deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I. Investors should distinguish such gains from recurring operating profitability when evaluating Tuesday’s results.
The earnings release will also clarify whether event-contract growth is compensating for softer cryptocurrency activity. Crypto transaction revenue declined 38% year over year in Q2 despite the rapid expansion of prediction markets.
FinanceFeeds previously examined how event-contract revenue overtook equities and crypto, alongside regulatory disputes affecting the business.
What Investors Should Watch on October 27
The most important figure may be event-contract revenue rather than the headline number of contracts traded.
Higher trading activity does not automatically produce equivalent revenue growth, particularly if the product mix, fees or trading patterns change.
Investors will also want to see whether Robinhood provides a financial breakdown of sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts. Without category-level figures, management’s description of shifting demand cannot be translated into a reliable estimate of future revenue.
Regulatory exposure remains relevant because sports contracts face continuing legal challenges over the boundary between federally regulated derivatives and state gambling laws. Financial event contracts provide a different source of activity, but do not eliminate regulatory and customer-protection considerations.
Robinhood’s international expansion adds another dimension. As FinanceFeeds reported on October 23, the company secured regulatory authorization in Dubai and is targeting a Middle East product launch in 2027.
For HOOD shareholders, Tuesday’s earnings will test whether Robinhood can turn growing trading engagement into sustainable revenue and profit.
The 15-minute bitcoin contracts are a notable product development, but the more important questions are how much customers trade, how much revenue Robinhood retains and whether that activity expands into its other financial services.
The October 27 results and management’s outlook will provide the next concrete evidence for assessing those questions.
