Updated 1 October 2026, 13:25 UTC
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): $344.08 at the close on Wednesday 30 September, and $350.14 (+1.76%) in pre-market trading at 9:06am ET on Thursday 1 October. Class C (GOOG) closed at $340.74 and was quoted at $347.39 (+1.95%) pre-market (Stock Analysis).
Verdict: Gemini 4 Argon answers the question that has weighed on the stock since May: whether Google is still competitive at the top of the model race. Google’s own benchmarks say yes on coding and security, and the price undercuts rivals by half or more. But the model is going first to a small group of security researchers, so the revenue test is months away. GOOGL sits about 16% below its May high. Bull $485, base $429, bear $295.
Our earlier, pre-launch scenarios are in the GOOG stock prediction with a $460 bull case and $235 bear case. This page covers the stock after the Gemini 4 Argon release.
Key facts
- Launch. Google released Gemini 4 Argon after the US close on 30 September, positioned on coding and cybersecurity; Google says the model can identify, verify and fix software vulnerabilities autonomously (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, 1 October).
- Pricing. $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, with a 95% discount on cached input tokens (Investing.com).
- Google’s benchmark claims. 77.9% on the DeepSWE v1.1 coding benchmark, which Google describes as a record; 68% on CWE-bench v1 vulnerability fixes, tied with xAI’s Grok 4.7; a 0.7% success rate for prompt-injection attacks (Investing.com). These are Google’s figures, not independent tests.
- Rollout. Trusted cybersecurity researchers first, then paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers, then wider availability for developers, businesses and consumers. No dates were given for the later stages (Investing.com).
- Analyst reaction. Jefferies kept a Buy rating and a $445 target, noting the stock had fallen 16% from its 18 May peak amid concerns about Alphabet’s competitive position (Investing.com).
- Consensus. Strong Buy from 61 analysts with an average target of $429.46 for GOOGL; forward P/E about 25.6; 52-week range $235.84 to $408.61 (Stock Analysis).
Why the price matters as much as the benchmarks
The most concrete number in the launch is the price. At $2 in and $10 out per million tokens, Argon costs half of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 ($4 and $20) and a fifth of Claude Fable 5.1 ($10 and $50), according to the pricing Investing.com compared.
| Model | Input, per million tokens | Output, per million tokens |
|---|---|---|
| Google Gemini 4 Argon | $2 | $10 |
| Anthropic Claude Opus 5.5 | $4 | $20 |
| Anthropic Claude Fable 5.1 | $10 | $50 |
For investors, cheap pricing cuts both ways. It is the strategy only a company with its own chips and data centres can sustain, and it plays to Google Cloud’s strength in winning developer workloads. It also means Google is competing on price, which caps how much each customer is worth while the rest of the market follows. Google also claims benchmark leads over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra; that is the company’s own claim and should be read as such until independent evaluations appear.
What the stock is pricing
GOOGL closed at $344.08, about 16% below the $408.61 it reached in May (Stock Analysis), in line with Jefferies’ note. Much of that drop came from the market’s doubt about whether Google would keep up with OpenAI and Anthropic, and that is the doubt Argon is meant to answer. The pre-market gain of under 2% suggests investors want to see adoption before they pay for it again.
Policy is another factor. Google signed the White House AI safety pact with outside audits alongside OpenAI and Meta on 30 September, as we reported in OpenAI, Google and Meta sign White House AI safety pact. A security-first rollout for a model built to find software vulnerabilities fits those commitments.
Scenario table: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Price (GOOGL) | vs $344.08 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $485 | +41% | Street-high target from Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth, raised from $415; above the $408.61 52-week high |
| Base | $429 | +25% | Consensus average of $429.46 from 61 analysts (Stock Analysis); Jefferies’ $445 sits just above it |
| Bear | $295 | -14% | 22 times forward earnings: the 25.6 forward P/E on $344.08 (Stock Analysis) implies about $13.40 of forward EPS; a de-rating of about 3.5 turns if Argon fails to win share gives about $295 |
Bull and base are targets published by the named sources, not FinanceFeeds forecasts. The bear level is our arithmetic from the stated forward multiple. GOOG (Class C) trades a few dollars below GOOGL; the percentages apply to both.
What gets GOOGL to $485
Fast movement through the rollout stages to paid API customers, independent benchmarks that confirm Google’s coding and security claims, and evidence in the third-quarter results that Gemini is pulling workloads to Google Cloud. A return above the $408.61 May high would show the market has dropped the “falling behind” discount.
What sends it to $295
A slow or quietly delayed rollout, independent tests that fall short of Google’s numbers, or a competitor matching the price within weeks. Price competition that lowers revenue per customer across the industry would also weigh on the multiple even if Argon wins share.
Quick Take
Google launched Gemini 4 Argon at $2 and $10 per million tokens, half the price of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5, with benchmark claims on coding and cybersecurity that it says lead the field. GOOGL closed at $344.08 and rose about 2% before the open, still about 16% below its May high. The launch addresses the competitive worry behind that drop, but access starts with security researchers only. Consensus is $429; Jefferies holds Buy at $445. Watch the rollout pace and third-quarter cloud numbers.
Alphabet is also one of the most traded names on prediction markets, as we covered in Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and Tesla lead Polymarket’s stock-linked trading boom.
Frequently asked questions
What is Gemini 4 Argon?
Google’s AI model released on 30 September 2026, aimed at coding and cybersecurity. Google says it can identify, verify and fix software vulnerabilities autonomously. It is going first to trusted cybersecurity researchers, then to paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers (Investing.com).
How much does Gemini 4 Argon cost?
$2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, with a 95% discount on cached input tokens (Investing.com).
How did Alphabet stock react to Gemini 4 Argon?
GOOGL rose 1.76% to $350.14 in pre-market trading at 9:06am ET on 1 October, from a $344.08 close; GOOG rose 1.95% to $347.39 (Stock Analysis). Other reports put the pre-market gain at about 2%.
What is the difference between GOOG and GOOGL?
GOOGL is Alphabet’s Class A stock with voting rights; GOOG is Class C with no voting rights. They track each other closely; on 30 September GOOGL closed at $344.08 and GOOG at $340.74 (Stock Analysis).
What is the analyst price target for Alphabet stock?
The consensus average for GOOGL is $429.46 from 61 analysts, rated Strong Buy (Stock Analysis). Jefferies has a $445 target and Tigress Financial the Street-high $485.
Is Gemini 4 Argon better than GPT-6 and Claude?
Google claims benchmark leads, including 77.9% on DeepSWE v1.1 and 68% on CWE-bench v1 (tied with Grok 4.7). These are Google’s own figures; independent evaluations have not yet been published.
Is Alphabet stock a buy after the launch?
FinanceFeeds does not give buy or sell recommendations. The bull case rests on adoption and cloud growth; the bear case on a slow rollout and price competition. The scenario table above sets out the levels.
Sources: Investing.com (Gemini 4 Argon launch and Jefferies note, 1 October 2026), Yahoo Finance, Stock Analysis (GOOGL and GOOG quotes and consensus), Tigress Financial Partners. Prices are as stated at the times shown and will have changed. This article is for information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading stocks, crypto and derivatives involves significant risk, including the loss of capital. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
