Wall Street’s still digesting SpaceX’s (SPCX) record June IPO when another AI behemoth has started banging on the market’s door.
Anthropic’s behind the popular Claude chatbot and is now reportedly marketing its stock at $70 to $78 apiece, targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis as reported on by Reuters.
Its public offering could total an eye-popping $64.4 billion, while a separate $26 billion private placement pushed the combined deal beyond SpaceX’s record. Nov. 19 is when shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under ticker ANT.
On top of that, Goldman Sachs just provided a staggering reason to add new layers to that excitement. According to the bank’s analysts Anthropic could potentially generate a superb $685 billion in annual sales by 2030, in a note shared with me.
Behind that gigantic forecast, though, lies a number that could potentially give prospective IPO investors pause and raise a $66 billion question about Anthropic’s ambitious growth plans: How much will it cost to get there?
Goldman’s enormous sales forecast comes with a $66 billion cash drain
Anthropic’s problem isn’t a lack of customers.
Goldman Sachs expects Anthropic to generate $136 billion in sales in 2027, yet burn $65.7 billion in free cash flow that year.
Put simply, the Claude maker might end up selling more AI services than ever while spending far more cash than its business generates. On top of that, Goldman projects a $40.4 billion operating loss in 2027.
Read more: Jim Cramer has a new warning for investors watching Anthropic
That’s different from free cash flow, which reflects the money left after operating needs and capital investment.
Anthropic’s growth is real though.
Its Nov. 10 IPO filing showed $33.2 billion in sales during the first nine months of 2026, including $17 billion in Q3.
Yet its adjusted operating margin dropped from 19% in Q2 to 15% in Q3, primarily because of $5 billion in costly short-term computing capacity. Also, its IPO filing shows north of 11,900 enterprise customers generating at least $100,000 annually
That said, that raises an uncomfortable question behind Goldman’s eye-popping $685 billion forecast for 2030 of how much infrastructure must Anthropic buy before sales finally catch up with spending?
Bloomberg / Getty Images
Nvidia and Google’s AI windfall comes with a costly catch
It all begins with the hardware and data centers needed to run Claude. Anthropic makes use of Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) processors, Google’s custom chips, and Amazon’s Trainium technology, while securing computing capacity through several infrastructure partners.
Its updated prospectus puts total compute and infrastructure commitments at approximately $900.9 billion. Moreover, around $451.6 billion of that is scheduled through 2030, which includes $70.7 billion due during the 12 months following Sept. 30, 2026.
Though these aren’t exactly bills payable today, but clearly they are obligations that could become a lot more expensive if AI demand disappoints.
Anthropic flags that mismatch in its own filing:
“Our revenue is primarily consumption-based, and much of it is not subject to long-term contractual commitments.”
Moreover, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has acknowledged the danger from a financial perspective of betting too aggressively on future AI demand as reported by Data Center Dynamics.
“With the way you buy these data centers, if you’re off by a couple years, that can be ruinous.”
In essence, the situation means that customers can change how much they use Claude, while several infrastructure agreements require payments over multiple years. It’s one reason AI sales growth doesn’t guarantee surplus cash.
Nvidia and Google each committed $10 billion to Anthropic’s concurrent private placement, with AMD, Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron Technology (MU), and TSMC Partners (TSM) contributing another $6 billion combined as reported on by Reuters.
For stockholders in these companies, the arrangement cuts both ways.
Anthropic’s expansion backs up the AI supply chain, but suppliers and investors are also exposed to whether that spending ultimately pays off.
Anthropic’s IPO provides a cushion, but 2030 remains the real test
That said, it’s not like Anthropic is approaching its IPO without a ton of liquidity.
As of Sept. 30, it reported $146.6 billion in liquidity, including $95.6 billion in cash, $36.3 billion in short-term investments, and $14.8 billion in available credit, as reported by Fortune.
At the $74 midpoint of its proposed share-price range, the company estimates around $84.6 billion in net proceeds from the public offering and concurrent $26 billion placement.
More Anthropic IPO:
- Anthropic’s IPO comes with an unusual warning on AI’s risk to humanity
- Anthropic’s Elvis lawsuit could reach inside Claude itself
- Anthropic faces a junk rating that could cost IPO investors
On top of that, the company has generated $6.6 billion in operating cash flow during the first nine months of 2026. But operating cash flow isn’t free cash flow; and investment in infrastructure can still create a massive cash deficit.
Goldman reportedly expects that deficit to persist until 2030, when it projects positive free cash flow of $33.6 billion.
However, that forecast depends on customer spending accelerating quickly enough to absorb an extraordinary infrastructure buildout.
Also, Goldman’s role as a lead IPO underwriter warrants caution, especially considering the fact that the forecast emerged from an investor briefing.
For Anthropic investors, the real test is if surging Claude demand can generate cash before financial commitments overwhelm funding.
Related: Jim Cramer questions his famous Nvidia investing rule
