Bitcoin could receive stronger relative support than gold if investors reduce bearish hedges around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to a new JPMorgan analysis that highlights a sharp difference in positioning between the two assets.
Strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said both Bitcoin and gold ETFs have attracted inflows since late July, when the so-called debasement trade returned amid concerns around fiscal deficits, monetary policy and currency purchasing power. However, the recovery has been considerably stronger for gold. Gold ETFs have recouped all of the outflows recorded earlier in 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half. JPMorgan said the gap leaves Bitcoin with greater room for demand to recover if macroeconomic and regulatory conditions improve. The bank stopped short of issuing a straightforward Bitcoin-versus-gold price forecast, instead framing the argument around investor positioning and hedging activity.
Bitcoin ETF Hedging Remains Elevated
The clearest difference between the two markets is visible in short interest. JPMorgan said short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, remains close to its highest level of 2026. By contrast, short interest in SPDR Gold Shares, or GLD, is below its historical average. The bank said that divergence indicates investors remain more cautious toward Bitcoin despite renewed ETF inflows and increased futures positioning. Options markets show a similar pattern: IBIT’s put-to-call open-interest ratio is higher than GLD’s, pointing to greater use of downside protection around Bitcoin exposure.
JPMorgan argued that this creates a potential asymmetry. If investors become less concerned about downside risks and begin unwinding those hedges, Bitcoin could benefit from an additional source of demand that is currently less relevant for gold. That does not guarantee Bitcoin will outperform the precious metal. The strategists explicitly noted that multiple other factors could influence both assets, including interest rates, regulation, macroeconomic conditions and investor risk appetite. Recent conditions have also turned more difficult. Rising inflation-adjusted bond yields and the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act weakened the debasement trade over the past week, according to JPMorgan. Bitcoin recently fell toward the mid-$70,000 range as markets digested both regulatory disappointment and tighter financial conditions.
Gold Still Has Strong Structural Support
JPMorgan’s relative-value argument does not mean the bank has turned bearish on gold. Its broader 2026 outlook remains strongly constructive on the precious metal. J.P. Morgan Global Research previously forecast gold could reach approximately $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued central-bank purchases, investor demand and concerns around debt sustainability and currency weakness. Gold traded around $4,360 per ounce on September 17 after rebounding more than 2% as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased. Bitcoin, meanwhile, was trading around $76,500 after the Senate’s failure to advance crypto market-structure legislation weighed on sentiment.
The JPMorgan analysis therefore points to a potential positioning-driven advantage for Bitcoin rather than a definitive forecast that it will beat gold. If short interest in IBIT declines and investors reduce their demand for downside protection, Bitcoin could receive an additional boost from hedge unwinding. Gold currently has less of that potential catalyst because investor positioning is already considerably less defensive. For markets, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s relatively cautious positioning may create more upside sensitivity if sentiment improves — even while gold retains strong structural support from central-bank demand and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
