Nebius stock closed at $120.37 on Thursday, down $21.15 or 14.94%, after Bloomberg reported that Microsoft has tightened oversight of neocloud data center projects. The shares touched $113.64 during the session, 19.70% below Wednesday’s $141.51 close, and have recovered to $128.11 in Friday’s premarket, per TradingView.
The report named Nebius among the neocloud providers now under tighter Microsoft scrutiny. It disclosed no change to the company’s Microsoft contract, which is worth $17.4 billion over five years and up to $19.4 billion if further services are added.
Nebius stock lost a fifth of its value intraday on a report that disclosed no dollar figures and no action against the company. Source: TradingViewThe Report Named Nebius but Changed Nothing for It
What Microsoft actually did, according to Reuters relaying the Bloomberg report, happened at other companies. It declined to exercise an option that would have more than doubled its Nscale agreement for computing power at a Texas data center. Weeks earlier it walked away from anchoring Nscale’s flagship site in Loughton, Essex, after power connection delays pushed supply into the 2030s.
IREN said separately that it is pushing back delivery dates on some Microsoft AI infrastructure after Microsoft asked for network design changes, and that it faces no financial penalties for the delay. Nebius and Nscale did not respond to Reuters.
Microsoft’s own line was that its “approach to infrastructure is built on flexibility and optionality.” The company is said to be stepping away from projects it considers risky and debating internally whether to sign new neocloud deals, while favoring its own data centers. No dollar figures appear anywhere in the report that took 14.94% off Nebius stock.
Nebius Stock Fell Harder Than CoreWeave on Thursday
CoreWeave closed down 9.83% at $43.66 on the same session, five points less than Nebius. The ranking inverts over longer windows, which tells a different story about each company.
Nebius stock is down 49.26% over a month and 34.47% over six months, yet still up 5.92% over a year and 38.38% this year. CoreWeave is down 50.72%, 63.14% and 63.13% across the same three windows.
One of these companies has spent a year losing value, and Nebius stock has spent a month giving back a year of gains. Source: TradingView · Chart: FinanceFeedsBoth have halved since a 7 October FinanceFeeds piece had Nebius stock at $249.87 and CoreWeave at $91.72. The declines since are 51.8% and 52.4%. A beta of 3.11 on Nebius stock and 3.64 on CoreWeave explains the amplitude.
Investor Takeaway
The Bloomberg report disclosed no figures and no action against Nebius, so the 14.94% fall in Nebius stock prices a repricing of neocloud risk rather than a contract loss.
CoreWeave’s Bonds Say What the Equity Is Pricing
Credit markets reached this view well before the equity market caught up to it. CoreWeave’s unsecured notes yield between 15.50% and 17.41% to maturity against coupons of 8.5% to 9.75%, on TradingView’s bond data.
The second-quarter accounts show why lenders are demanding that much compensation to hold the paper. CoreWeave reported $2.575 billion of revenue, a $626 million net loss and $640 million of net interest expense, so financing cost more than the loss itself and absorbed 24.9% of revenue. Its backlog stands at $104.2 billion against a $26.71 billion market capitalization.
The company has also added 1,310 staff in a year to reach 2,190, a 148.47% increase that leaves $2.34 million of revenue and a $533,120 loss attached to each employee. TradingView lists six Nebius notes and shows no yield to maturity against any of them, so there is no comparable live credit read on Nebius itself and the CoreWeave curve is pricing the group.
Bonds yielding nearly double their coupon mean holders expect to be compensated for the chance they are not repaid in full. Source: TradingView bond data · Chart: FinanceFeedsFinanceFeeds has tracked this thread since Elon Musk said debt markets had shut on neoclouds in late October, and through Gartner’s neocloud math meeting a CoreWeave debt scare in mid-October. Redburn had a $54 sell rating on CoreWeave in September, which the stock has now passed.
The Microsoft Deal Is 33 Times Nebius Revenue
Concentration is the reason a report with no numbers in it moves Nebius stock this much. Nebius reported $529.8 million of revenue in its last full year, so the $17.4 billion Microsoft agreement is worth 32.8 times that, and the $38.47 billion market capitalization puts Nebius stock at 72.6 times trailing sales. The company earned $82.5 million of net income on that revenue and reports trailing basic earnings of $0.26 a share, which values Thursday’s close at roughly 463 times what it has earned.
UBS has flagged construction-delay risk across the sector, estimating that about 30% of expected US data-center additions in 2028 could be at risk because neocloud growth depends on financing and new capacity arriving on time. Nebius is building a 600 MW site in Rotterdam, which places it inside the category of long-dated capacity commitments that UBS is pointing at. An earlier Microsoft spend cut ran on FinanceFeeds on 31 October.
Nebius Stock Points Higher in Friday Premarket
Both names are bid this morning after Thursday’s losses, though neither has recovered them. Nebius stock is at $128.11, up 6.43%, and CoreWeave is at $46.45, up 6.39%, as of about 12:18 GMT+1.
A 3x long Nebius exchange-traded product run by Leverage Shares triggered an intraday rebalance on Thursday at an average price of $119.63, which is the mechanical selling that tends to accompany moves of this size. Neither company has a confirmed next earnings date, which leaves Nebius stock without a scheduled catalyst to reset the numbers behind it.
Investor Takeaway
CoreWeave’s bond yields are the cleanest read on neocloud financing stress, so watch whether they fall back with the equity bounce or stay above 15%, because that spread sets the financing cost behind Nebius stock too.
