The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh has become harder to read. Officials have pulled back from rigid forward guidance, leaving traders to piece together each meeting on their own.
This time, the bond market did not wait for a signal.
By Nov. 13, a December hike had gone from likely to certain in the eyes of traders. The CME FedWatch tool showed full odds of a move at the Dec. 9 meeting, with a smaller slice of the market betting on a half-point.
Meanwhile, the 10-year yield was holding above 5% after jumping more than 13 basis points the day before, CNBC reported.
The bigger question now is how far the Fed goes, and what that means for anyone who borrows money.
How hot inflation pushed yields back above 5%
It started with the October inflation print. Consumer prices came in at 0.4%, a tenth above what economists had penciled in, and bonds sold off fast. The 10-year yield climbed 14 basis points to 5% on Nov. 10. The 2-year jumped 19 basis points.
October was also the seventh straight month in which consumer prices ran ahead of wages, according to TheStreet.
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Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already set the stage that morning in London. After the CPI data landed, money markets moved to price in a 90.5% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and a 9.5% shot at 50 basis points. Short-term yields, which track Fed expectations most closely, led the move.
The pressure kept building into Nov. 12. Better-than-expected jobs data and hawkish Fed commentary added to the push, while the government lined up a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds, The Wall Street Journal reported.
October already gave markets a preview. The 10-year hit about 5.34%, a level not seen since 2002, before pulling back. Mortgage rates shadow that yield more than they shadow the Fed’s own rate.
What stood out about that surge, analysts said, was the speed rates moved faster than the market could follow.
Fed officials keep a bigger move on the table
Waller is the main reason traders are even pricing in 50 basis points. He said that size of increase should be on the table if inflation came in hot, and that stopping at 25 basis points “would put our credibility at risk.”
He is not the only one pushing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan wants at least two more quarter-point increases before any pause. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has said smaller, more frequent hikes would be less disruptive.
Both Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook had voted for a hike at the October meeting.
Outside the Fed, some economists think December is not negotiable. EY’s Gregory Daco said skipping a hike could raise doubts about the Fed’s resolve, and that 50 basis points at year-end should not be dismissed.
KPMG’s Diane Swonk went a step further, saying the Fed is losing credibility on inflation and wage earners are bearing the cost.
Not everyone agrees. Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman put a single quarter-point hike as the base case. Wizman flagged a potential government shutdown, an oil pullback tied to U.S.-Iran talks, or an AI-driven stock sell-off as reasons for the Fed to hold back, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
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Oil and wholesale prices are the next test
Energy has been behind much of this inflation. Oil was heading for a second straight weekly drop, after falling roughly 13% the week before, once President Donald Trump made clear he was not looking to restart hostilities with Iran.
On Nov. 12, he posted that “we don’t need a deal with Iran,” according to The National.
The picture is not settled, though. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed explosions on two supertankers this week, and Houthi forces claimed they struck a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a key route since traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted.
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Producer prices are the other number to watch. Wholesale costs jumped 6.3% year over year in September, the sharpest annual increase since 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That kind of pressure at the wholesale level tends to work its way to consumers in the months that follow.
What rising yields mean for borrowers
Homebuyers got a brief window just before this week’s move. The 30-year mortgage rate slipped to 7.11% for the week ending Nov. 12, its fourth straight weekly dip, though it was still sitting well above the 6.24% average from a year earlier.
Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said rates had “dropped to their lowest level in seven weeks.”
That window could close quickly if the 10-year holds above 5%. Pending home sales already fell to the lowest reading in the index’s history in September. Fannie Mae’s October outlook has the 30-year rate averaging 7.4% in the fourth quarter and 7.5% through 2027, according to Fannie Mae.
For borrowers on variable rates, a Fed hike lands almost immediately. Credit cards and home equity lines are tied to the prime rate, so the bill goes up with little delay.
Savers get the other side of that trade; rate-sensitive accounts at online banks have been offering yields well above what most standard savings accounts pay.
Related: JPMorgan’s CEO sends stern bond market warning to investors
