Cerebras did not turn an Oracle press release into 2026 revenue. Cerebras Systems Class A shares, ticker CBRS on Nasdaq, closed Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at $112.56, down $6.75, or 5.66 percent, from Tuesday’s $119.31. Forty-four sessions run through the December 31 close, skipping Thanksgiving and Christmas and still counting the early closes. The last 90 of 115 log-returns in a Nasdaq file of 116 closes put the bull at $161.08, the base at $80.33, and the bear at $50.51.
The bull is 43.1 percent above $112.56 and still under the $185.00 offer. The base is 28.6 percent below the close because the mean log-return is negative. The companies dated Cerebras Inference on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to calendar year 2027. If $161.08 is a contract outcome rather than a multiple, the revenue that has to keep arriving is the OpenAI master relationship: 750 megawatts committed, with $56.8 million recognized in the June quarter.
Key facts
- Nasdaq’s historical table shows CBRS closed Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at $112.56 on 18,971,340 shares. The bar opened at $119.335, high $120.60, low $105.36. A Nasdaq info snapshot at 8:43 a.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, showed a premarket last sale of $109.5465. The formula uses the completed Wednesday close.
- The series starts May 14, 2026: open $350.00, high $386.34, low $300.00, close $311.07, volume 33,497,870. The March-quarter 10-Q says the offering closed May 15 with 34,500,000 Class A shares at $185.00, including the full greenshoe of 4,500,000, and net proceeds of about $6.2 billion. Wednesday is 63.8 percent under the first close and 39.2 percent under the offer.
- The last 90 Nasdaq log-returns have mu of -0.007667527130514332 and sample sigma of 0.06992975823685456. Over 44 sessions those inputs round half up to a bull of $161.08, a base of $80.33, and a bear at $50.51. Over 10 sessions, ending November 11, they round to $145.26, $104.25, and $83.57.
- The Nasdaq 20-day average of closes is $141.25925. The 50-day average is $172.8414. Wednesday sits 20.3 percent under the 20-day line and 34.9 percent under the 50-day line. The prior five sessions ranged from $106.13 to $121.555. Wednesday’s $105.36 low broke that low by $0.77.
- The June 30, 2026 Form 10-Q reports GAAP revenue of $180.110 million, up 74 percent from $103.322 million, and GAAP cloud revenue of $125.991 million, up 281 percent. GAAP gross profit was $25.559 million, 14.2 percent of revenue. GAAP net loss was $450.528 million. The August 12 exhibit quotes core revenue of $210 million.
- The 10-Q revenue note says OpenAI revenue recognized was $56.8 million in the quarter and $74.4 million in the half, net of warrant amortization of $2.5 million and $3.3 million. Remaining performance obligations were $25.4 billion, and about 22 percent is expected over the 24 months ending June 30, 2028. A significant amount of that balance is the OpenAI agreement.
- HPCwire’s October 27 reprint says Cerebras Inference on OCI is planned for calendar year 2027. The October 20 release sets third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, November 12, 2026, with a call at 5 p.m. ET. June 30 cash, restricted cash, and investments were $6,742.157 million, $684.680 million, and $1,179.390 million.
What just happened, and why Tuesday’s reading was the wrong contract
Tuesday, October 27, was the announcement session. The stock opened at $109.535, traded from $108.88 to $120.50, and closed at $119.31 on 14,366,810 shares. From Monday’s $108.37 that was a gain of $10.94, or 10.10 percent. Andrew Feldman, co-founder and chief executive, posted on X at 16:05 GMT: “The fastest inference in the world is coming to @OracleCloud.” The post pairs Cerebras with Oracle for fast inference on OCI. It names no dollar amount, no megawatts, and no year.
The release, carried by HPCwire and sourced to Cerebras, supplies the date. Feldman said, “People want AI that can do valuable work quickly.” Mahesh Thiagarajan, president of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, said, “AI inference demands choice.” Cerebras Inference on OCI is planned for calendar year 2027. The text names no capacity, price, or customer already in production on OCI.
Wednesday gave most of the pop back and printed a new low. The shares opened at $119.335, reached $120.60, and sold to $105.36 before closing at $112.56. Volume was 18,971,340 shares. The $6.75 drop is 5.66 percent. From Monday’s $108.37 to Wednesday’s $112.56 the net change is $4.19, or 3.87 percent. A mark at Tuesday’s close was a one-day move the next official session cut by more than half.
Wednesday’s $105.36 is the low of the saved series. It is $0.77 under the prior five-session low of $106.13, and the $112.56 close is $8.995 under the prior five-session high of $121.555. The closes used here are the completed Nasdaq prints. Thursday’s premarket $109.5465 does not enter the log-returns or the bull, base, and bear.
Who is exposed
OpenAI is the named deployment that can still be 2026 revenue. Note 3 of the June 30 Form 10-Q says Cerebras signed a master relationship agreement in December 2025 with OpenAI OpCo, LLC. OpenAI is committed to purchase 750 megawatts of inference capacity. The term is three or four years and can run to five. OpenAI holds an option for another 1.25 gigawatts, in tranches by the end of 2030, for a total of up to 2.0 gigawatts. A secured note of about $1.0 billion, funded by OpenAI in January 2026, supports the build-out.
Recognized revenue was $56.8 million in the quarter and $74.4 million in the half, net of warrant amortization of $2.5 million and $3.3 million. That quarterly figure is 31.5 percent of GAAP revenue of $180.110 million. It is not a promise that September repeats it. Remaining performance obligations were $25.4 billion, with about 22 percent expected over the 24 months ending June 30, 2028, or $5.588 billion of arithmetic, and 43 percent in the following two years.
The concentration table does not name Customers A, B, C, and D. Customers A and D are related parties under ASC 850. Customer B was 57 percent of June 30 receivables and Customer D was 19 percent. The named OpenAI dollars stay the $56.8 million and the $74.4 million.
The 10-Q names OpenAI, Group 42 Holding Ltd and its affiliates, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, and Amazon Web Services as significant customers. The August 12 exhibit also names AMD, AWS, and CrowdStrike. On the company customer page, Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, says, “We believe that Cerebras is the best high-speed inference offering in the world right now, and it’s hard to overstate how important high-speed inference is.”
Two routes sit after this window. The September 29 General Compute release says wafer-scale inference starts there in the first quarter of 2027, and that General Compute had announced a $400 million debt facility from Upper90. Finn Puklowski, co-founder and chief executive, said, “We built General Compute to put the fastest inference silicon to work for the workloads that need it most.” Oracle’s plan is calendar year 2027.
Holders are the other exposure. The June 10-Q restates a lock-up through the earlier of 6:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the second trading day after September-quarter earnings, or 180 days after the prospectus. The company estimates up to about 171.1 million shares can be released in that period, including up to about 15.0 million held by directors and officers. FinanceFeeds reported on October 13 that the prospectus schedules up to about 19.4 million shares for October 28. Wednesday was that date. Eligible is not sold.
What the tape and the filings show
The file has 116 official closes from May 14 through October 28, and 115 log-returns. The house rule uses the last 90 when the series is at least that long, so this path uses 90 of 115. It does not borrow another ticker’s volatility, and it does not drop the latest session.
Mu is -0.007667527130514332. Sigma is 0.06992975823685456. N is 44, and the square root of 44 is 6.6332495807108. Base is 112.56 times e to the power of N times mu, $80.33 after half-up rounding from 80.327756. Bull adds 1.5 times sigma times that square root and rounds to $161.08. Bear subtracts 1.0 times sigma times that square root and rounds to $50.51. The bull stays above the spot, so the negative drift stays in the bull.
One session dominates the left tail and stays in the 90. June 23 closed at $226.72 and June 24 closed at $182.26, a log-return of -0.21828153687438964, or 19.6 percent.
Ten sessions, through November 11, round to $145.26, $104.25, and $83.57. Fifteen sessions round to $150.62, $100.33, and $76.53. No English title prints a bull and bear within $1 of $161.08 and $50.51, so the title keeps the 44-session pair. The 20-session path, $154.35, $96.56, and $70.63, is in the maths file.
| Item | Figure | Versus the $112.56 close | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull, 44 sessions | $161.08 | 43.1 percent above | Last 90 Nasdaq log-returns, spot October 28, 2026 |
| Base, 44 sessions | $80.33 | 28.6 percent below | Same distribution, drift only |
| Bear, 44 sessions | $50.51 | 55.1 percent below | Same distribution, drift minus 1.0 sigma |
| Ten-session bull, base, bear | $145.26, $104.25, $83.57 | Through November 11 | Same mu and sigma, N of 10 |
| 20-day and 50-day averages | $141.26 and $172.84 | 20.3 percent and 34.9 percent below | Last 20 and last 50 closes in the Nasdaq file |
| Offering price and first close | $185.00 and $311.07 | 39.2 percent and 63.8 percent below. The bull is 12.9 percent under $185 | March-quarter 10-Q and the May 14 Nasdaq row |
| OpenAI June-quarter revenue | $56.8 million | 31.5 percent of GAAP revenue of $180.110 million | Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026 |
| Oracle cloud availability | Calendar year 2027 | Outside the 44-session window | HPCwire reprint, October 27, 2026 |
No street note was opened, so no analyst target is in the title.
What the companies said, and what they left off the page
The X status is andrewdfeldman/status/2115112637659066678, posted at 16:05 GMT on October 27. The 2027 date is in the release, not in that post.
The August 12 earnings exhibit is where management put numbers on the year. Feldman said, “This was an outstanding quarter for Cerebras. Core revenue more than doubled to $210 million, and our cloud business nearly quadrupled year-over-year.” Bob Komin, chief financial officer, said, “We have made rapid progress in key areas required to deliver exceptional growth against our remaining performance obligations of $25.4 billion, and plan to more than triple revenue in 2027.” That tripling is a 2027 plan.
The same exhibit guides third-quarter core revenue at about $214 million to $216 million, core gross margin at 38 percent to 40 percent, and core operating margin at negative 25 percent to negative 23 percent. Full-year core revenue was raised to $880 million to $890 million. More than 600 megawatts are live and under contract for delivery by the end of 2027.
The Oracle release names no megawatts and no price. The 10-Q does not say Customer B is OpenAI. Komin’s tripling plan sits in 2027. FinanceFeeds on October 4 already separated a disputed later model tier from the 750-megawatt agreement. The question in this window is whether the committed capacity keeps showing up as recognized revenue.
Financing, the lock-up, and the cash already on the sheet
June 30 cash and equivalents were $6,742.157 million, restricted cash $684.680 million, and investments $1,179.390 million, which add to $8,606.227 million. Receivables were $123.361 million, customer deposits $242.672 million, and current deferred revenue $173.735 million. GAAP hardware revenue was $54.119 million, down from $70.295 million, beside an operating loss of $477.233 million. Core revenue of $210 million is the run rate in the guide November 12 will be judged against.
The lock-up has a date. Branch one is 6:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the second trading day after earnings for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. Results are after the close on Thursday, November 12, so that day is Monday, November 16. Branch two is 180 days after the prospectus. The March-quarter 10-Q identifies the prospectus as the final prospectus filed May 14, 2026. One hundred eighty days after May 14 is Tuesday, November 10. The registration statement was declared effective May 13, and a count from May 13 is Monday, November 9, the outside date FinanceFeeds recorded on October 2. Both November 9 and November 10 are earlier than November 16. The prospectus branch binds. Eligibility is not a sale.
What happens next
On Monday, November 9, or Tuesday, November 10, the prospectus branch makes remaining shares eligible. Selling into a stock 20.3 percent under its 20-day average points toward the $80.33 base. Holding through the date leaves the distribution unchanged. The 171.1 million share figure is a ceiling for the whole period, not a one-morning volume forecast.
After the close on Thursday, November 12, the bull is a contract outcome only if core revenue lands inside or above $214 million to $216 million and OpenAI revenue keeps being recognized from the $56.8 million June base. A miss leaves $161.08 as a volatility band. OCI availability is calendar year 2027, and General Compute starts in the first quarter of 2027, so neither can fill a September-quarter gap.
The third date is Thursday, December 31, 44 sessions from Wednesday. The base of $80.33 is the negative mean carried forward. The bull of $161.08 needs that drift plus 1.5 standard deviations and is still 12.9 percent under the $185 offer. The bear of $50.51 keeps the June 24 session in the sample. No second earnings date between November 12 and year-end appears in the documents read here.
Bull, base, and bear
| Case | Price | Versus the $112.56 spot | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $161.08 | 43.1 percent above | Drift plus 1.5 sigma over 44 sessions, a November 12 core print inside or above $214 million to $216 million, and OpenAI still taking the 750 megawatts from the $56.8 million June base. The 2027 Oracle plan does not qualify. |
| Base | $80.33 | 28.6 percent below | Mu of -0.007667527130514332 persists for 44 sessions. A guide hit can still follow the drift. Oracle and General Compute add no 2026 revenue here. |
| Bear | $50.51 | 55.1 percent below | The same drift minus one sigma. A guide miss, a stall in OpenAI revenue, or selling on the November eligibility extends the left tail already in the June 24 session. |
N is 44, mu is -0.007667527130514332, and sigma is 0.06992975823685456. Rounding is half up to the cent. The title numbers are those three results. They are not a broker target, and they are not the $185 offer.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the sessions through December 31, 2026 put Cerebras, and which customer has to keep the revenue?
Forty-four Nasdaq sessions from Wednesday’s $112.56 close put the bull at $161.08, the base at $80.33, and the bear at $50.51. The bull is a contract outcome only if OpenAI keeps taking the 750 megawatts in the master relationship, the deployment that produced $56.8 million of June-quarter revenue. Oracle Cloud is planned for calendar year 2027, so that plan does not pay the bull inside this window.
Why is the base below Wednesday’s close?
The base is $80.33 because the mean log-return is negative. Over the last 90 daily log-returns, mu is -0.007667527130514332. Compounded across 44 sessions, that drift takes $112.56 to $80.33. The bull adds 1.5 sample standard deviations and still clears the close, at $161.08. These levels come from the saved Nasdaq file. They are separate from any street target.
Did the Oracle announcement change the year-end maths?
The formula uses Wednesday’s $112.56 official close. Tuesday closed at $119.31, up $10.94 from Monday, and Wednesday gave back $6.75. The HPCwire reprint of the October 27 release dates Cerebras Inference on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to calendar year 2027 and states no price or capacity. A Thursday premarket last sale of $109.5465 was in the Nasdaq info snapshot and is not the spot.
When does the Cerebras lock-up end?
The June 10-Q uses the earlier of 6:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the second trading day after September-quarter earnings, or 180 days after the prospectus. Results come after the close on November 12, so that trading day is November 16. A May 14 filing date puts the other branch on November 10. A May 13 start puts it on November 9. Either prospectus count is earlier. Eligible shares are not shares sold.
What would make the $161.08 bull a revenue outcome?
The November 12 print would need core revenue inside or above the guide of about $214 million to $216 million, and the OpenAI line would need to keep being recognized from the $56.8 million June quarter. Matching the guide is the quarter the company already sketched. It does not, by itself, reprice the shares to the bull. General Compute starts in the first quarter of 2027. Oracle’s cloud plan is calendar year 2027.
Is this financial advice?
This is not financial advice. The bull, the base, and the bear are a distribution from 90 log-returns and 44 sessions, rounded half up to the cent. They are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold CBRS. The same file contains a session, from June 23 to June 24, that fell from $226.72 to $182.26. That session stays in the volatility. A broker target would require a note this piece did not open.
This is not financial advice.
