Updated 29 October 2026. Spot gold was bid at $4,022 an ounce at about 9:07 am ET on Thursday, down $44.60 or 1.10 percent, after a $4,015.30-$4,069.90 range (Kitco). The data that was due at 8:30 am ET is out: the US economy grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter against 3.2 percent expected, and core PCE inflation rose 0.3 percent in September for 3.1 percent on the year (BEA). Verdict: the numbers did nothing to take a December hike off the table one day after two Fed officials voted to raise rates now, and gold is back near $4,020, close to last week’s three-month low. Reference levels: $3,940 below, $4,110 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $4,022 bid / $4,024 ask at about 9:07 am ET on 29 October, down 1.10 percent on the day, with a session range of $4,015.30 to $4,069.90 (Kitco).
- GDP: real GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the second, led by investment (inventories and equipment, especially computers), consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by lower exports (BEA advance estimate). The consensus was 3.2 percent (FXStreet).
- PCE inflation: the PCE price index rose 0.5 percent in September and 3.6 percent from a year earlier; core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent and 3.1 percent. Personal income rose 0.2 percent and spending 0.5 percent (BEA). Core was 3.0 percent in August.
- The Fed, Wednesday: rates held at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on a 10-2 vote; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of an immediate 25 basis point hike. The statement said the economy was “still expanding strongly” and inflation remained elevated. Futures pricing for a December hike rose to as high as 83 percent after the decision (Mitrade).
- Gold’s Fed reaction: spot fell to $4,035.48 after the decision, recovered to about $4,056.80 in late US trading and held near $4,056 early on Thursday before the data (Mitrade).
- Dollar: the US Dollar Index was little changed at 102.20 after the GDP release (FXStreet, 12:32 GMT).
- The low to watch: on Friday 23 October spot gold touched $3,975.23, its first move below $4,000 since mid-July (Reuters).
What the 8:30 data changed
Very little in the direction gold needed. A 3.4 percent growth rate is the kind of number the Fed statement described as “expanding strongly”, and core PCE at 3.1 percent is more than a point above the 2 percent target and a tenth higher than August’s 3.0 percent. Both prints matched or beat expectations rather than missing them, so the case for a December hike that Cook and Hammack wanted to deliver on Wednesday stays intact. Gold, which pays no yield, does worst when real rates look set to rise, and it slipped to the bottom of its range after the release.
The one softer detail sits inside the GDP report: the quarterly PCE price index rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, down from 5.0 percent in the second, and core at 2.5 percent, down from 3.3 percent (BEA). That reflects the quarter as a whole, and the September monthly figures matter more to the Fed now. Northlight’s Chris Zaccarelli said the Fed had left a clear signal it was ready to hike in December, and Principal Asset Management’s Seema Shah expects hikes in December and early 2027, which she said would cap gold’s upside (via Mitrade).
Oil and the rest of the week
Oil remains the other half of gold’s inflation trade. Brent was near $114 on Thursday morning (see our Brent page for Thursday); a lower oil price supported gold earlier in the week, as set out on Wednesday’s gold page. Our Fed preview explained why a hold with December left open was the hawkish outcome for metals, and that is what arrived.
On the hourly chart, Mitrade marks support at $4,025-$4,035, then $3,980-$4,000 and $3,932-$3,951, with resistance at $4,101-$4,110 and then $4,139-$4,150. Thursday’s drop has put the price on the first support band.
Gold into Friday: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,940 | December hike pricing firms further after the PCE print, Treasury yields rise and Friday’s $3,975.23 low gives way. | About 2.0 percent below Thursday’s $4,022 bid, inside Mitrade’s $3,932-$3,951 support band. |
| Base | $3,980-$4,070 | Gold holds above $4,000 but cannot reclaim Wednesday’s levels while December pricing stays high. | Mitrade’s $3,980-$4,000 support to just above Thursday’s $4,069.90 high. |
| Bull | $4,110 | Buyers treat the data as already priced, oil eases and the dollar slips back below 102. | The top of Mitrade’s $4,101-$4,110 resistance, about 2.2 percent above Thursday’s bid. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $4,000: a daily close below it would put Friday’s $3,975.23 low back in play.
- Fed speakers: any comment from Cook or Hammack on why they dissented, and from Chair Kevin Warsh on December.
- Oil: Brent’s direction after the Iran headlines that moved it this week.
- $4,110: a close above the resistance band would end the near-term bearish bias.
Quick take: Gold is near $4,022, down about 1.1 percent on Thursday, after third-quarter GDP grew 3.4 percent against 3.2 percent expected and core PCE held at 3.1 percent. Neither number weakens the case for a December hike that two Fed officials voted for on Wednesday. Expect $3,980-$4,070; a break of Friday’s $3,975 low opens $3,940, and a move through $4,110 would end the slide.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was bid at $4,022 an ounce at about 9:07 am ET on Thursday 29 October 2026, down 1.10 percent, after trading between $4,015.30 and $4,069.90 (Kitco).
Why is gold down today?
Third-quarter GDP beat expectations and core PCE inflation rose to 3.1 percent, keeping a December Fed rate hike in play a day after two officials dissented in favour of hiking immediately. Higher expected rates weigh on gold, which pays no interest.
What was US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026?
Real GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate, up from 2.2 percent in the second quarter, according to the BEA’s advance estimate. Economists expected 3.2 percent.
What was the September PCE inflation rate?
Headline PCE prices rose 0.5 percent on the month and 3.6 percent on the year; core PCE rose 0.3 percent and 3.1 percent (BEA).
What did the Fed decide on 28 October?
The Fed held rates at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike. December hike pricing rose to as high as 83 percent afterwards (Mitrade).
What was gold’s recent low?
Spot gold touched $3,975.23 on Friday 23 October, its first move below $4,000 since mid-July (Reuters).
Sources: Kitco (Thursday spot price and range, 29 October 2026); US Bureau of Economic Analysis (third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September personal income and outlays, 29 October); FXStreet (GDP consensus, dollar index); Mitrade (Fed decision, vote and dissents, December pricing, post-decision gold prices, Zaccarelli and Shah views, technical levels); Reuters (23 October low).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious metals prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
