Updated 4 November 2026, during the US pre-market. Nike (NKE) closed Tuesday at $38.48, down 1.64 percent, and was quoted at $39.50, up 2.65 percent, in pre-market trading on Wednesday (StockAnalysis). The stock is about 44 percent below its 52-week high of $69.14 and 20 percent above its low of $31.97. The next event is Nike’s Investor Day on 16 and 17 November, where chief executive Elliott Hill said the company will share “the next phase of our growth strategy”. Verdict: the stock has stabilised around its 50-day average, but analysts are split from $28 to $51 and the Investor Day has to supply the numbers the last quarter did not. Reference levels: $33 below, $46 above.
Key facts
- Price: $38.48 at Tuesday’s close on 3 November, down $0.64 from $39.12, in a range of $37.94-$38.97; $39.50 pre-market at 8:08 am ET on Wednesday (StockAnalysis, MarketBeat).
- Range and averages: 52-week range $31.97-$69.14 (StockAnalysis); 50-day moving average $36.91 and 200-day $46.14 (MarketBeat).
- Valuation and dividend: market value of about $57 billion; annual dividend of $1.64, a 4.26 percent yield at Tuesday’s close (StockAnalysis).
- Last quarter: first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $11.2 billion, down 4 percent, with earnings of $0.48 per share (Nike, 1 October).
- Full-year guide: revenue down high single digits in fiscal 2027 and adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.35 (Nike).
- Next event: Investor Day on 16 and 17 November (Elliott Hill, fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 call, 30 June).
- Consensus: Reduce, with an average target of $40.93 from 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 21 Hold and 11 Sell ratings (MarketBeat); StockAnalysis shows Hold from 43 analysts with an average target of $36.45.
Where the stock stands
Nike has been rebuilding from its 52-week low of $31.97. Tuesday’s close of $38.48 is about $1.60 above the 50-day moving average of $36.91 and still $7.66 below the 200-day average of $46.14 (MarketBeat). That is the shape of a stock that has stopped falling but has not yet persuaded the market that the trend has turned. Our 18 October Nike page looked at the first bounce off that low; the stock has held most of it since.
The dividend is part of the case for holders. At $1.64 a year, it yields 4.26 percent at Tuesday’s price (StockAnalysis), high for a consumer brand and a sign of how far the share price has fallen relative to the payout.
What the last quarter said
Nike reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on 1 October for the three months to 31 August (Nike):
- Revenue of $11.2 billion, down 4 percent reported and 5 percent on a currency-neutral basis.
- NIKE Direct revenue of $4.1 billion, down 8 percent; wholesale revenue of $6.8 billion, down 1 percent.
- Greater China revenue of $1.18 billion, down 22 percent reported and 26 percent currency-neutral.
- Gross margin up 60 basis points to 42.8 percent; net income of $712 million, down 2 percent; diluted EPS of $0.48 against $0.49 a year earlier.
- Inventory of $7.8 billion, down 3 percent.
The guide was the harder part. Nike said revenue is expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.35, excluding about $0.15 of costs from its Pace restructuring programme. Pace targets about $2.5 billion of cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, against about $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, mostly employee-related (Nike). Revenue missed the roughly $11.3 billion analysts expected, while EPS beat estimates in the $0.43-$0.44 range (Yahoo Finance).
Why the Investor Day matters
On the 30 June call, Hill said Nike looked forward to “sharing the next phase of our growth strategy at our Investor Day on November 16 and 17” (Nike transcript). It will be the company’s first Investor Day since 2017, according to previews of the event.
The current guide tells investors what fiscal 2027 looks like, but not what comes after it. That is the gap the event has to close. The points analysts have flagged are a financial framework for the years beyond fiscal 2027, the plan for Converse, and how much of the Pace savings flows to margins rather than back into marketing. China is the other open question: a 26 percent currency-neutral fall in one quarter is the largest drag in the business, and North America, up 2 percent to $5.13 billion in the quarter (Yahoo Finance), cannot offset it alone.
What analysts are saying
The spread of views is wide, which is why the event matters for the stock:
- Freedom Broker upgraded Nike to Buy on 2 October and set a $51 target, down from $54 (MarketBeat).
- Royal Bank of Canada cut its target to $40 from $45 with a Sector Perform rating on 29 September (MarketBeat).
- Wells Fargo set a $30 target with an Equal Weight rating on 2 October (MarketBeat).
- Wolfe Research started coverage on 21 October with Underperform and a $28 target (MarketBeat).
The two consensus figures sit either side of the price: MarketBeat’s $40.93 is about 6 percent above Tuesday’s close, StockAnalysis’s $36.45 about 5 percent below. Investor days are often the trigger for a round of target changes, in either direction.
Nike stock also came up in a different context this week: Nike was among the issuers objecting to tokenised versions of their shares, see our report on Nvidia and Nike joining 50 issuers blocking OKX/ICE stock tokens.
Nike into the Investor Day: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | NKE | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $33 | The Investor Day sets long-term targets the market does not believe, or the China decline deepens, and more firms cut targets toward the $28-$30 range. | About 14 percent below Tuesday’s close and just above the $31.97 52-week low. |
| Base | $36-$42 | Nike repeats the fiscal 2027 guide and gives a framework that is credible but back-loaded; the stock holds its 50-day average. | The 50-day average of $36.91 up to just above MarketBeat’s $40.93 average target. |
| Bull | $46 | A multi-year plan with clear margin and revenue targets, a defined China fix and Pace savings reaching earnings. | The 200-day average of $46.14; about 20 percent above Tuesday’s close. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from the verified close, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $36.91: the 50-day average. Holding it into 16 November keeps the base case intact.
- Investor Day details: the agenda, webcast time and whether Nike gives numeric long-term targets.
- Greater China commentary from management or peers before the event.
- Rating changes in the run-up, especially from the firms with targets below $30.
- Second-quarter results, expected in mid-December (StockAnalysis estimate).
Quick take: Nike closed at $38.48 on Tuesday and was up 2.65 percent pre-market on Wednesday. It is 20 percent off its low but 44 percent below its high, between its 50-day ($36.91) and 200-day ($46.14) averages. The fiscal 2027 guide is a high single-digit revenue decline with $1.15-$1.35 of EPS; the 16-17 November Investor Day is where Nike has to show what comes next. Expect $36-$42; $33 needs a disappointing framework, $46 needs credible multi-year targets.
FAQ
What is Nike stock trading at?
Nike closed at $38.48 on Tuesday 3 November, down 1.64 percent, and was quoted at $39.50 pre-market on Wednesday (StockAnalysis).
When is Nike’s Investor Day?
16 and 17 November 2026, as Elliott Hill said on the company’s 30 June earnings call (Nike transcript).
What is Nike’s guidance for fiscal 2027?
Revenue down by a high single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.35, excluding about $0.15 of restructuring costs (Nike, 1 October).
Is Nike stock a buy, according to analysts?
Most analysts rate it Hold. MarketBeat shows a Reduce consensus with an average target of $40.93; targets range from $28 (Wolfe Research) to $51 (Freedom Broker).
What is Nike’s dividend yield?
About 4.26 percent, based on an annual dividend of $1.64 and Tuesday’s $38.48 close (StockAnalysis).
Why is Nike stock down this year?
Revenue is falling, led by a 26 percent currency-neutral drop in Greater China last quarter, and Nike guided for a high single-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2027 (Nike).
Sources: Nike first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, 1 October 2026; Nike fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript, 30 June 2026; StockAnalysis, 3-4 November (prices, range, dividend, consensus, earnings date); MarketBeat, 3 November (moving averages, consensus, analyst actions); Yahoo Finance (estimates, North America revenue).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stocks are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
